Models confirm that recent European wildfires are exacerbated by anthropogenic climate change
Résumé
Climate change is an ongoing process that is modifying weather patterns and influencing weather phenomena and extreme events such as heatwaves, droughts, and floods. This paper investigates whether climate change can also play a role in enhancing wildfires by focusing on a set of three recent wildfires in Europe. We employ the concept of analogues to assess the influence of climate change on the atmospheric conditions underlying wildfire development monitored through the fire weather index, by comparing past and present atmospheric patterns similar to those that occurred during the wildfire. Our analysis focuses on both reanalysis data and high-resolution regional climate models to verify the observed changes and provide future projections. Our findings show that climate change has altered critical factors supporting wildfire development, such as wind patterns, temperature, and humidity. The results from our sample of three events point out that climate change has increased wildfire hazards in Europe, which is projected to further increase for similar fire weather conditions in the future.
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